Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Sigmoid Curve, part 2

From Google images
If you have not read my previous post on the Sigmoid Curve, I recommend you do so before reading this post.

The video link I shared in my last post described the inflection point identified above by point A and correctly highlighted the importance of discerning just when (or where on the curve) for that to take place for the greatest benefit.  This is not an easy decision to make and, I think, is one of the identifying marks of the great leader, i.e. the ability to see far enough into the future to understand the approaching end of the current curve and to bring vision, resources, and most importantly, WILL, to bear on establishing the new direction.

The space between the two curves identified in the picture above as "Doubt & Uncertainty" is understated.  This area has been described by some as "hell" and others as "chaos" and is definitely a time of tumult (read: hurricane status storm), be it in your personal life, the life of the church, or your company.  The blue (or established) line doesn't understand the need for change when it seems everything is going well.  The red (or new) line doesn't understand how the older established group can't understand the impending danger.  For this new group it is like racing toward the edge of a cliff; "why can't they see that," they say.  While the established group responds, "You just want to change for the sake of change," or "there is no reason to change as we are still growing, plenty of time to think about change when we see things slow down."  The problem is that if you wait until the slow down, there will be a significant drop in operating capital, necessitating cuts, sometimes drastic.

Enter the strong leader who is willing to initiate the inflection point and HOLD ON  as the sparks begin to fly, and they will.

More on this middle ground and how to manage it in my next post.

No comments:

Post a Comment